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Mar 28, 2023
Planting season usually has a significant impact on agricultural markets. This year should be no different and today we’re releasing the FBN® Planting Intentions Report, one of the first major survey-based estimates of U.S. farmers’ planting intentions for 2023. This comes ahead of the release of the USDA’s March Prospective Planting Report which is scheduled for release on March 31, 2023.
During March 2023, an electronic survey was distributed to U.S. FBN members. The survey collected the respondent’s zip code as well as planted acreage for key crops for the year 2022 and what they intend to plant in 2023.
Survey responses accounted for over 4.7 million acres covering principal crops. Any survey data that was incomplete or inconsistent was removed.
[UNLOCK the 2023 FBN Planting Intentions Report Report here]
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There were several goals of the survey, but most importantly we wanted to deliver on our promise of putting Farmers First®. That means returning the insights derived from the results of the poll to participants to allow better positioning and preparedness ahead of this planting season.
The data gathered in the survey is confidential, and the analysis and results were made possible because of you - our members.
All survey responses are anonymized and maintained as confidential by FBN.
The Report was slightly bearish on the corn crop. U.S. corn acreage is projected to increase 3.9 million acres in 2023 to 92.5 million acres which is an estimated 4.45% increase over last year.
Michigan is the one Corn Belt state where farmers indicated a potential pull back in corn area.
However, we are optimistic about export prospects. Argentina's current crop has been whacked, which normally would compete with U.S. corn into our new-crop year. And Ukraine's situation could result in a second year of limited corn production. Plus, China is likely to continue its trend of importing large volumes of corn.
But even with the potential of a boost in exports, ending stocks are set to rise with such an increase in planted area.
The Report is bullish on soybeans. Soybean acreage is pegged at 84.5 million acres, right at 3 million off of last year’s tally or an estimated 3.4% lower.
We think there is considerable evidence to expect carryout to be below 200 MB for 2023, and could lead to strong gains in new-crop soy prices, which have plummeted from $14 to $13 in the past month.
"The soybean crushing total for 2023 remains a big question mark. On one hand, the demand potential from the RFS remains in limbo, and recent EPA signaling indicates that the renewable diesel market opportunity may not be as big as originally thought, although an official stance from the government is expected later this summer. But on the other hand, construction is actively taking place on new plants totaling 125 MB of potential new soy crush capacity that could come online throughout the 2023 marketing year. USDA only penciled in an 80 million bushel increase,” the Report notes.
The Report is neutral on spring wheat. U.S. farmers are expected to plant 11 million acres of spring wheat in 2023, only slightly up from last year.
Across the Northern Hemisphere, wheat area is thought to be at best flat, setting the stage for another year of declining global stocks. This, in general, should be supportive to wheat.
While U.S. acreage is set to be up for all wheat, with USDA seeing that total at 49.5 million acres (FBN at 49.3 million), USDA's balance sheet prediction for 2023/24 shows only a modest boost in ending stocks.
Download the Report to learn more about our predictions for sorghum, cotton, durum, rice, barley and oats.
Get insights and learn more from FBN experts in the latest FBN Research publication. Unlock the 2023 FBN Planting Intentions Report for free.
[Not an FBN member yet? Click the link above and create a free FBN account to unlock the report.]
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Mar 28, 2023